LOOKING for a winner in Round 17?
We’ve got you covered as we take a look at every game from a punter’s perspective.
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ST KILDA v WEST COAST
Gabba, Thursday 7.10pm
TAB odds: St Kilda $1.85, West Coast $2
Line: St Kilda -2.5 points $1.95, West Coast +2.5 points $1.85
Moneyball: West Coast has attracted 60 per cent of head-to-head support with TAB
CHASING THE MONEY – ST KILDA v WEST COAST
– THE Saints are coming off a four-day break since scoring a 14-point win over Hawthorn on Sunday.
– THE Eagles are coming off a four-day break since suffering a two-point loss to Western Bulldogs on Sunday.
– ST KILDA’s win over the Hawks ended a two-game losing streak.
– WEST Coast has lost two of its past three games since going on an eight-game winning run.
– THE Eagles scored an 18-point win last time these teams met in Round 8 last year.
– WEST Coast has won 10 of its past 11 games overall against the Saints dating back to Round 8, 2012.
– ST KILDA holds a 2-2 record at the Gabba this season, while West Coast has gone 2-1 at the venue.
– THE Eagles hold a 3-5 record in Queensland this season, having gone 7-0 at home in Perth.
– ST KILDA is averaging three points more per game than West Coast this season, but is also conceding three points more defensively.
– THE Saints are averaging 41 inside-50s per game this season to West Coast’s 39, however the Eagles are averaging more clearances, 32-29.
Both teams are coming off four-day breaks, but this is remarkably West Coast’s fifth game in 19 days. That’s got to pinch. I think a fresher St Kilda can cause an upset. Saints by 1-39 points at $2.10 looks like value.
GEELONG v RICHMOND
Metricon, tonight 7.50pm
THIS might be the game of the year so far, or at least the second best behind Richmond’s clash with Port Adelaide.
The two top premiership favourites battling it out on a Friday night two weeks out from finals is a juicy prospect indeed.
Richmond should be fresh off a bye, while the Cats are coming off another five-day break. However, the Tigers still have some missing stars.
The winner effectively locks in a top-four finish, adding to the importance.
Richmond has a good record against the Cats, but Geelong is in better form right now and has more stars on the park.
Consider the Cats in a close one by 1-24 points at $2.60.
TAB ODDS: GEELONG $1.72 RICHMOND $2.15
CHASING THE MONEY – GEELONG v RICHMOND
— Geelong is coming off a five-day break since scoring a 66-point win over Essendon last Sunday.
— Richmond is coming off a nine-day break, after having a Round 16 bye.
— The Cats have won their past six matches and 10 of 12 games since Round 4.
— The Tigers have won four straight matches and seven of their past nine games since Round 5.
— Richmond and Geelong last met in last year’s preliminary final at the MCG, with the Tigers recording a 19-point win after trailing by 21 points at halftime.
— Richmond has won four of its past five games against Geelong, after losing 13 straight matches between the sides before that.
— Geelong holds a 2-0 record at Metricon Stadium this season, while the Tigers have gone 5-0 at the venue this year.
— Geelong averages 76 points a game this season, while Richmond averages 68 points.
TAB FRIDAY NIGHT SPECIAL
Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield and Richmond’s Dustin Martin to both kick a goal is $4.50.
NORTH MELBOURNE v FREMANTLE
Metricon, Saturday 2.10pm
THE Kangaroos aren’t exactly hopping to the end.
They’ve lost six straight games and 12 of their past 13 matches and I can’t see them turning around their fortunes here.
The Dockers are coming off a shorter five-day break but have found some nice form at stages in the back half of the season and have won four of their past seven games.
Given Fremantle has scored more than 60 points just three times this season, the Dockers by 1-39 points at $1.75 looks the value.
TAB ODDS: NTH MELBOURNE $2.60 FREMANTLE $1.50
PORT ADELAIDE v ESSENDON
Adelaide Oval, Saturday 5.05pm
WHAT the Bombers dished up in a 66-point loss to Geelong last week was putrid and it does not get any easier for them here.
They should get key forward Joe Daniher back, which will help, but I still can’t see them matching it with a Power side which has won six of their past seven games.
At home, where it has a 5-1 record this season, this is a chance for ladder-leader Port to make a statement two weeks out from finals.
I like the Power at the -29.5 point line at $1.90.
TAB ODDS: PORT ADELAIDE $1.13 ESSENDON $6
GWS GIANTS v MELBOURNE
Gabba, Saturday 7.40pm
IT’S hard to put any trust in either of these sides, who must be the two most flaky teams in the competition.
Both are coming off losses to lowly-ranked opponents and both desperately need to finish the year with two wins if they are to play finals.
I’m tipping GWS, but given they lost to bottom side
Adelaide last week, it’s hard to say why, other than that they beat Melbourne last time these sides met by 26 points.
The Dees don’t deserve to play finals but the Giants are still capable if they’re on.
TAB ODDS: GWS GIANTS $1.72 MELBOURNE $2.15
CARLTON v ADELAIDE
Metricon, Sunday 1.05pm
NOT as easy a game to tip as it might have looked a couple of weeks ago.
The Crows have some confidence up after consecutive wins, and if they bring the pressure again they’ll be in with a real chance.
However, I’ve got to stick with the Blues.
They wouldn’t want to start like they did against Sydney again, though.
TAB ODDS: CARLTON $1.44 ADELAIDE $2.80
HAWTHORN v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Adelaide Oval, Sunday 3.35pm
AFTER last weekend’s upset win over West Coast, I think the Bulldogs will play finals.
They just need to keep ticking the boxes and shouldn’t have too much problem doing that against a struggling Hawks side.
The Bulldogs beat the Hawks by 19 points last year and should do so again with speed and midfield grunt.
TAB ODDS: HAWTHORN $3.30 W BULLDOGS $1.33
SYDNEY v BRISBANE LIONS
Cairns, Sunday 6.10pm
THE young Swans are still continuing to grow in stature, but, boy, Brisbane looked sharp against Gold Coast on Wednesday night.
This will be the Lions’ third game in 10 days and there are a few injuries beginning to mount. However, the Lions have too much scoring power for the Swans and too much to play for, chasing a top-2 spot.
TAB ODDS: SYDNEY $3 BRISBANE LIONS $1.40
COLLINGWOOD v GOLD COAST
Gabba, Monday 7.10pm
THIS is must-win for the Magpies as far as their spot in finals is concerned.
Lose and Collingwood is in dire straits.
The young Suns were flat in their 45-point loss to Brisbane on Wednesday night.
You’d expect a better performance from them, but fresh off a bye the Magpies will get the points.
TAB ODDS: COLLINGWOOD $1.30 GOLD COAST $3.50
ROUND 17 BIG BETS WITH TAB
$2,500 @ $4 on Richmond (Premiership)
$2,000 @ $1.90 on Geelong -2.5 v Richmond
$2,000 @ $1.14 on Port Adelaide v Essendon
$1,000 @ $21 on Collingwood (Premiership)
$1,000 @ $2 on Geelong v Richmond (two separate bets)
ROUND 17 HOT MULTI
Geelong d Richmond $1.72
Fremantle d North Melbourne $1.50
Port Adelaide d Essendon $1.14
Western Bulldogs d Hawthorn $1.35
AFL Round 17 Hot Multi Price: $3.97
Originally published as Footy bets: Will the Cats’ winning streak roll on?